Washington floats Orban for UN chief with projected 10-vote margin

A US State Department official projected that former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban could secure 10 votes from the 15 members of the UN Security Council if he runs for the organization's top post. The estimate suggests a supermajority that would effectively guarantee his selection, provided he formally enters the race. This figure exceeds the minimum threshold needed for a candidate to be considered broadly supported by the council.

According to a report citing sources from three countries, American officials have approached Orban to encourage him to join the contest for the UN Secretary-General. Orban is described as showing interest but has not made a final decision. He has reportedly declined to comment on the developing situation.

Washington believes that Russia and China would also back Orban, creating a joint candidacy supported by three of the five permanent council members. Officials from the US and another country noted that when Washington, Moscow, and Beijing agree on an outcome, they can generally secure it. This alignment would address the key uncertainty regarding the positions of the United Kingdom and France, the other two permanent members with veto power.

The State Department official acknowledged that the idea initially sounded far-fetched but argued that Orban could attract substantial backing. The official estimated that eight members would easily support him, with the potential to reach ten. However, the report cited no public commitments from any country to date.

Orban’s name emerged repeatedly in US discussions about the desired profile for the next leader. Officials reportedly sought someone like Orban, a stance agreed upon by their Chinese and Russian counterparts. Orban was receptive to the approach but voiced reservations tied to his identity as a nationalist politician. He is reportedly unwilling to announce a bid unless he is confident of winning.

The US official described Orban as the dream candidate for MAGA conservatives, citing his opposition to large-scale immigration and liberal nongovernmental organizations. In office, Orban clashed with the European Union while building closer ties with China. Trump endorsed him in Hungary’s April elections, and Vice President JD Vance campaigned on his behalf. Another source said Trump and Vance are expected to back Orban if he runs, with any announcement likely to wait until after the US midterm elections.

Critics within the diplomatic community raised concerns that Orban’s appointment could align the post with the interests of Russian President Vladimir Putin and other authoritarian leaders. His ties to Moscow and Beijing, along with his record in Hungary, would likely face scrutiny. Among the declared candidates is Emirati diplomat Lana Nusseibeh, who entered the race last week and is gaining momentum. She is expected to answer questions on Tuesday, ahead of a Security Council straw poll on Wednesday. Antonio Guterres’s term ends on December 31.